The impact of skin cancer prevention efforts in New South Wales, Australia: Generational trends in melanoma incidence and mortality

Abstract

Background

In Australia, skin cancer awareness campaigns have focused on raising the awareness and consequences of skin cancer and highlighting the importance of utilising sun protection.

Methods

Trends in melanoma incidence and mortality have been explored elsewhere in Australia and this study sought to examine the trends in NSW. Anonymised incidence and mortality data for in situ and invasive melanoma from 1988 to 2014 were obtained from the NSW Cancer Registry. Trends of melanoma incidence and mortality were analysed using segmented regression to allow for changes over time. Birth cohort patterns were assessed using age–period–cohort models.

Results

Over the period, incidence of in situ melanoma increased in all age groups although the rates were lowest in those under 40 years of age. Incidence of invasive melanoma was either stable or decreased in people under 60, while it increased in those aged 60 and above, particularly in men. Age–period–cohort analysis revealed decreasing age-specific incidence of invasive melanoma under 40 years of age. Melanoma mortality over the period was stable or decreased in all groups except in men aged 60 or over. Overall, mortality rates generally declined or remained stable particularly in recent years.

Conclusion

It is encouraging that rates of invasive melanoma are declining in the younger age cohorts – which could be attributed to both primary prevention efforts with individuals protecting their skin as well as early detection through self assessment and clinician performed skin checks. In addition, whilst it is important to monitor the increasing rates of in situ melanoma, the increase is likely due to early detection and treatment of melanoma that could have progressed to invasive melanoma and therefore detection whilst still in situ is an improved outcome. Overall, the results demonstrate the need to continue to improve the understanding of and compliance with primary skin cancer prevention measures in order to reduce population UVR exposure and overall melanoma incidence.

Highlights

• • Incidence of in situ melanoma increased in all age groups, with rates lowest in those under 40 years.
• • Incidence of invasive melanoma was either stable or decreased in people aged under 60.
• • Age–period–cohort analysis revealed decreasing age-specific incidence of invasive melanoma under 40 years.
• • Melanoma mortality over the period was stable or decreased in all groups except in men aged 60 or over.
• • Overall, mortality rates generally declined or remained stable particularly in recent years.